For Russia, the vote is a must-win issue, as it is the last viable chance to halt Moldova’s decoupling and prevent Moldova’s EU accession and democratic consolidation. Russia, weakened by its war of choice in Ukraine, sees the country as key to maintaining influence in southeastern Europe and as part of its sphere of influence. Its position on the western side of Ukraine and the eastern side of the EU’s common frontier makes it an alluring target.
That explains the enormous lengths it’s going to go in the hope of swaying the result in favor of pro-Kremlin parties. The pro-European President Maia Sandu warned on September 9 that the election was the country’s most important. “It is a race against time — to anchor our democracy inside the Union, where it will be protected from the greatest threat we face: Russia,” she said. Moldova says Russia is pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into an influence and vote-buying campaign.
Both Moldovan and international independent media have reported widespread Russian-backed schemes, including training pro-Kremlin Moldovans for street violence, and payments through cryptocurrencies made by banks linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
For the EU, the elections are both a test of its credibility as a geopolitical and regional power and supporter of the current government, and of its ability to anchor Moldova’s democratic transformation and reform process. The bloc’s limits and lack of a decisive response have been starkly illustrated by Georgia’s decision to turn away from Brussels and toward Moscow, despite a hugely pro-Western population.
This article was originally published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on September 26,2025. You can read the full version here.
